2022 started with hope for the semiconductor sector, but one major manufacturer has put a damper on optimism. ASML, through its executive president, Peter Wennink, has warned in an interview with Financial Times that access to chips will remain limited for the next two years, as the production chain will continue to struggle to increase its throughput.

It is not a trivial prediction, but it comes directly from the head of the great supplier of lithography machines for semiconductors worldwide. That is, the manufacturer of the machines necessary to produce the most modern transistors.

The end of the crisis is not expected until 2024

Chip production faces a Perfect storm It doesn't look like it's going to end anytime soon. It is not that chips are not being manufactured, but that there is no capacity to increase production at the same rate as demand has grown. There's a huge shortage of semiconductors and, according to ASML, this will continue to be the case for at least two years.

ASML's prediction is that more machines will be shipped this year than last year, but still below the demand curve. According to his calculations, it is necessary to increase capacity by 50% for what the market is asking for, which will take at least two years.

Hace una semana, Intel announced an investment of 80,000 million euros in Europe to increase chip production. And among its providers ASML has a leading role. Intel President Pat Gelsinger explains that he is aware of this lack of capacity and is in direct contact with ASML to see how they could increase production.

"Today there is a limitation. We will need about two years to build the machinery and infrastructure. In the third or fourth year we can start shipping the equipment," they explain from Intel to the Financial Times. It would not be until 2024 when the semiconductor industry expects to have its production at the necessary rate.